Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 23.013710 25.062930 27.281431 29.873788 32.835364 36.131755 40.104308
2025-11-16 19.777472 22.561659 25.789536 29.855914 34.911190 41.085107 49.350781
2025-11-23 17.460239 20.629120 24.502123 29.684605 36.600651 45.767119 59.308819
2025-11-30 15.729952 19.104294 23.405967 29.455707 38.034055 50.266567 70.099403
2025-12-07 14.446510 17.950533 22.578259 29.371619 39.538491 55.051291 82.589840
2025-12-14 13.357304 16.910864 21.743706 29.101109 40.643276 59.366523 95.597916
2025-12-21 12.858632 16.603794 21.858730 30.181779 43.945061 67.913943 119.456880
2025-12-28 12.077003 15.817521 21.186384 29.943109 45.015267 72.772264 137.928245
2026-01-04 11.455943 15.202868 20.696121 29.908852 46.394120 78.498631 161.131568
2026-01-11 11.002471 14.792177 20.466615 30.255206 48.488584 86.178266 193.785076
2026-01-18 10.483301 14.241459 19.965043 30.068282 49.528070 91.864917 224.653883
2026-01-25 10.005557 13.719293 19.462223 29.814163 50.380450 97.357061 259.250646
2026-02-01 9.598064 13.287955 19.085588 29.769798 51.714706 104.609659 308.099126
2026-02-08 9.191072 12.832852 18.636091 29.544512 52.639851 111.184606 362.466108
2026-02-15 8.812725 12.400556 18.192493 29.282180 53.444450 117.766173 426.875641
2026-02-22 8.465542 11.998156 17.770310 29.015467 54.197140 124.528658 504.872150
2026-03-01 8.173365 11.668474 17.449667 28.913930 55.326918 132.970338 613.466403
2026-03-08 7.876829 11.315569 17.063963 28.640751 55.992409 140.218454 734.787934
2026-03-15 7.799115 11.320217 17.310632 29.692553 60.234485 162.360455 1096.818393
2026-03-22 7.542270 11.009620 16.966035 29.457514 61.033216 171.860470 1375.784863
2026-03-29 7.330020 10.764399 16.725467 29.423184 62.388387 184.553859 1827.112983
2026-04-05 7.179747 10.617712 16.657400 29.761061 64.884062 204.090341 2736.450725
2026-04-12 6.972875 10.363215 16.370756 29.578318 65.816374 216.913975 3800.177478